FORECASTING JOURNALISM

Abstract

This article explores the forecast or prognosis as a particular form of
journalistic exercise. Although we appreciate the current developments in precision
journalism and data journalism to invoice reliable and verified information -including
predictions-, we believe that the close attachment to statistical data, computational
treatment and mathematical modeling can prevent us from understanding the role
played by human configurations that are not computable or reducible to isolated
variables. This article estimates that systematized and systematic treatment of variables
and data is essential, but also requires abductive procedures and inferences based on
indications to account for possible futures. The article also makes a small study on the
presence of different forms of forecast in the broadcast of a television news program
that deals with three events: the attacks in the center of Paris on November 13, 2015,
the television electoral debate that would take place on Sunday November 15, 2015
in Argentina with a view to the second presidential round; and the student march in
Ayotzinapa, Guerrero state, Mexico, on November 14, 2015. To do this, a recording
instrument was built that we adjusted and made complex when tested.